光华讲坛——社会名流与企业家论坛第6550期
主题：How do Households Respond to Permanent and Transitory Income Shocks? Evidence from Pension Reforms in Urban China收入冲击对家户消费的影响：来自中国城镇养老金改革的证据
主讲人：北京大学国家发展研究院 黄炜副教授
主持人：经济学院 邹红教授
时间：7月14日 13:30-15:30
举办地点：柳林校区颐德楼H312
主办单位：经济学院 科研处
主讲人简介：
黄炜，北大博雅青年学者、北大国发院经济学副教授（长聘），海外高层次青年人才计划入选者。黄炜老师先后任职于美国经济研究局（NBER）、新加坡国立大学（NUS）和美国埃默里大学（Emory University）。研究兴趣主要集中于劳动经济学、健康经济学和公共经济学等领域。黄炜老师于2016年获得哈佛大学经济学博士学位。黄炜老师的研究论文发表于Nature，Review of Economics and Statistics，American Economic Journal: Applied Economics，Journal of Labor Economics，Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Social Science & Medicine以及《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《世界经济》、《经济学（季刊）》和《数量经济技术经济研究》等国际国内顶尖学术期刊。黄炜老师担任Economics of Transition and Institutional Change共同主编，China Economic Review、Journal of Asian Economics副主编和《经济学（季刊）》副主编，同时为《经济研究》以及American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economics and Statistics等国内外学术期刊匿名审稿人。
内容简介：
Consumption response to permanent and transitory income changes is of central interest in economic studies. Understanding how consumption responds differently to transitory or permanent income changes is important for academia and policymakers. Exploring the prefectural policies that permanently and temporarily increase pension income in urban China, we use a representative monthly panel diary dataset to examine how household consumption responds to transitory and permanent pension increases. We find that, for each pension increase, the reform, on average, increases both permanent and transitory pension incomes among the eligible households, respectively. Based on the responses in the consumption, our estimates yield an estimate of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) being 0.64 to 0.96 but 0.05 to 0.12 for transitory income, consistent with structural estimation. The consumption responses differ by consumption categories. The estimated MPC is much larger among the households with higher liquidity constraints. By contrast, we find no significant changes in other household incomes, including wage, property, business or transfers, or other outcomes such as household size, structure, and individual labor supply. This paper provides novel evidence about different household responses to transitory and permanent income changes and delivers policy implications for predicting dynamic household responses to public policies.持久性收入和暂时性收入变动对消费的影响是经济研究的重要问题。本文基于城镇家庭调查的月度数据，利用各城市持久性和暂时性增加养老金收入的政策，研究持久性和暂时性的养老金增加对家庭消费的影响。研究发现，每次养老金调整都会同时增加家庭的持久性和暂时性收入，其中持久性收入变化引起的边际消费倾向为0.64—0.96，而暂时性收入变化引起的边际消费倾向为0.05—0.12。养老金调整引起的持久性收入和暂时性收入变化对消费的影响在不同消费类别间存在异质性。受流动性约束大的家庭的边际消费倾向较高。本文也发现家庭的其他收入（包括工资性收入、房产、企业或转移支付收入）以及家庭规模、家庭结构和个体劳动供给等其他变量均不受养老金调整的影响。本文为研究家庭对持久性和暂时性收入变化的不同反应程度提供了新证据，并为预测家庭对公共政策的动态响应提供了政策启示。
